TradeHouse prediction-markets Claude Code plugin marketplace v1.0.0

/pm-thesis, /pm-calibration, /pm-fees, /overfit-check wrapping the public th-api / tools / th-validator free-tier endpoints. Analytics + phantom-battery verdicts only; RIA-compliant (no persona/signal internals, disclaimers mandatory). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_013EsBGJjjHKmNdm5KEcd9bH
2026-07-29 09:25:55 -07:00 · 2026-07-29 09:25:55 -07:00 · 54193d3177
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--- a/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json
+++ b/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json
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+{
+  "name": "tradehouse",
+  "owner": {
+    "name": "TradeHouse — Elite AI Empire",
+    "url": "https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com"
+  },
+  "metadata": {
+    "description": "Prediction-market analytics plugins backed by TradeHouse settlement-truth data: calibration curves, round-trip fee math, and DSR/PBO overfit verdicts.",
+    "version": "1.0.0"
+  },
+  "plugins": [
+    {
+      "name": "tradehouse-prediction-markets",
+      "source": "./plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets",
+      "description": "Slash commands for prediction-market analytics (/pm-thesis, /pm-calibration, /pm-fees) and honest backtest validation (/overfit-check) against TradeHouse public APIs. Analytics only — not investment advice.",
+      "version": "1.0.0",
+      "author": { "name": "TradeHouse — Elite AI Empire" },
+      "homepage": "https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com",
+      "license": "MIT",
+      "keywords": ["prediction-markets", "kalshi", "polymarket", "calibration", "backtest", "overfitting", "deflated-sharpe"],
+      "category": "finance"
+    }
+  ]
+}
--- a/21
+++ b/21
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+MIT License
+
+Copyright (c) 2026 Elite AI Empire / TradeHouse
+
+Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy
+of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal
+in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights
+to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
+copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is
+furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions:
+
+The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all
+copies or substantial portions of the Software.
+
+THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
+IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
+FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
+AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
+LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
+OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE
+SOFTWARE.
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
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+# TradeHouse Prediction-Markets — Claude Code plugin marketplace
+
+Prediction-market analytics inside Claude Code, backed by **TradeHouse** public APIs:
+settlement-truth market data, venue calibration curves computed over 150k+ resolved markets,
+a live-measured fee schedule, and the **phantom battery** (deflated Sharpe / PBO) that we use to
+kill overfit backtests before they cost money.
+
+## Install
+
+```bash
+claude plugin marketplace add https://git.eliteaiempire.com/eas-oss/tradehouse-prediction-markets.git
+claude plugin install tradehouse-prediction-markets@tradehouse
+```
+
+## Commands
+
+| Command | What it does |
+|---|---|
+| `/pm-thesis <ticker>` | Cross-venue pricing snapshot + calibration context + fee hurdle for one market |
+| `/pm-calibration [venue]` | Reliability curve, Brier score, favorite-longshot read for a venue (free: polymarket, polymarket_us, opinion) |
+| `/pm-fees <venue> <price>` | Round-trip platform cost in USD and bps — the break-even edge hurdle |
+| `/overfit-check <returns> [trials=N]` | Deflated-Sharpe + PBO verdict on your backtest — the metric leaderboards don't show |
+
+## Free tier & upgrades
+
+All commands use free public endpoints (no API key). Free tier is rate-limited; HTTP 402/429
+responses point at the paid tiers. Pro/Desk tiers (full per-category calibration, the live Desk,
+Risk Cockpit, datasets): https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com/pricing
+
+## What this plugin will NOT do
+
+- No investment advice, no trade recommendations, no signals. Outputs are market analytics and
+  statistical validation verdicts, with the API's compliance disclaimer reproduced verbatim.
+- No access to TradeHouse's internal trading personas or signal internals — the public,
+  compliance-hardened API surface is the only data source.
+
+Simulated/backtested performance is not indicative of future results.
+
+## Related
+
+- TradeHouse Overfit Validator (web): https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com/validator
+- Agent-data MCP quickstart: https://git.eliteaiempire.com/eas-oss/tradehouse-mcp-quickstart
+
+MIT licensed.
--- a/plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets/.claude-plugin/plugin.json
+++ b/plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets/.claude-plugin/plugin.json
@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{
+  "name": "tradehouse-prediction-markets",
+  "version": "1.0.0",
+  "description": "Prediction-market analytics (live cross-venue data, calibration curves, round-trip fee math) plus the TradeHouse phantom battery (deflated Sharpe / PBO overfit verdicts) — via TradeHouse public APIs. Free tier; market analytics only, never investment advice.",
+  "author": {
+    "name": "TradeHouse — Elite AI Empire",
+    "url": "https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com"
+  },
+  "homepage": "https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com",
+  "license": "MIT"
+}
--- a/plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets/commands/overfit-check.md
+++ b/plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets/commands/overfit-check.md
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+---
+description: Run backtest returns through the TradeHouse phantom battery — deflated Sharpe (DSR) + PBO overfit verdict
+argument-hint: <path to returns file, or paste daily returns> [trials=N]
+---
+
+Run the user's backtest through the **TradeHouse phantom battery**: $ARGUMENTS
+
+1. **Collect the returns series.** Accept either a file path (CSV/JSON — read it and extract the
+   per-period net returns as decimals, e.g. `0.012` = +1.2%) or pasted numbers. Need >= 20 points.
+   An equity curve is also acceptable (send it as `equity` instead of `returns`).
+
+2. **Ask for `trials` if not given** — the number of strategy variants the user tried before this
+   one (parameter sweeps count). Be direct: the whole point of the deflated Sharpe is that the
+   metric only means something if this number is honest. If they refuse to estimate, use their best
+   guess and say the verdict is conditional on it.
+
+3. **Call the validator** via the Bash tool:
+   ```
+   curl -s -X POST "https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com/api/validate" \
+     -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
+     -d '{"returns":[...], "trials": N}'
+   ```
+
+4. **Also compute the standard tearsheet** (Sharpe/Sortino/Calmar/CVaR) for context:
+   ```
+   curl -s -X POST "https://tools.eliteaiempire.com/v1/tearsheet" \
+     -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
+     -d '{"returns":[...]}'
+   ```
+
+5. **Report, without softening:**
+   - The phantom-battery verdict: `pass_dsr`, `pass_pbo`, `deflated_sharpe_dsr`, `pbo`,
+     `psr_vs_zero`, and the `plain_english` explanation + `reasons` verbatim.
+   - The tearsheet metrics table (note that raw Sharpe/Sortino/Calmar are what leaderboards show,
+     and DSR is what survives multiple testing).
+   - If the verdict is negative, do NOT suggest tweaks to make it pass — explain that more variants
+     tried = a higher bar, and point to out-of-sample/forward validation as the honest next step.
+
+**Compliance (mandatory):** these are statistical validation verdicts on user-supplied backtest
+data — not investment advice, and simulated performance is not indicative of future results.
+Include that sentence in the output. On HTTP 402/429 mention
+https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com/pricing and stop.
--- a/plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets/commands/pm-calibration.md
+++ b/plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets/commands/pm-calibration.md
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+---
+description: Venue calibration report — implied probability vs realized outcomes over resolved markets (free tier)
+argument-hint: "[polymarket|polymarket_us|opinion]"
+---
+
+Produce a **calibration report** for the prediction-market venue: **$ARGUMENTS**
+(default to `polymarket` if no venue given; free-tier venues are `polymarket`, `polymarket_us`, `opinion`).
+
+1. Fetch via the Bash tool:
+   ```
+   curl -s "https://tools.eliteaiempire.com/v1/market-efficiency?venue=<VENUE>"
+   ```
+
+2. Render the result:
+   - A table of the `reliability_curve`: probability bucket, n markets, mean implied probability,
+     realized YES frequency, calibration gap.
+   - Headline stats: `n_markets`, `brier_score`, `mean_abs_calibration_error`.
+   - A short interpretation: which buckets are over-priced vs under-priced, and whether the classic
+     favorite-longshot bias (longshots overpriced, favorites underpriced) appears in this venue.
+     Note that a calibration gap is a *population* statistic over resolved markets — it does not
+     make any single market mispriced.
+
+3. If the user asks for a venue outside the free tier, say the free preview covers
+   `polymarket`, `polymarket_us`, `opinion`, and per-category/per-time-to-settlement calibration is
+   part of the paid tiers: https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com/pricing
+
+**Compliance (mandatory):** reproduce the API's `note` field, present everything as historical
+market analytics computed by TradeHouse from public resolved-market data, and never as investment
+advice or a recommendation to trade any market.
--- a/plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets/commands/pm-fees.md
+++ b/plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets/commands/pm-fees.md
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+---
+description: Round-trip fee/cost calculator for a prediction-market bet (free, live-measured fee schedule)
+argument-hint: <venue> <price 0-1> [bet_usd=100] [maker]
+---
+
+Compute the **round-trip platform cost** for a prediction-market bet: $ARGUMENTS
+
+1. Parse venue (e.g. `kalshi`, `polymarket`, `limitless`), entry price (0-1), optional bet size
+   (default $100) and maker/taker (default taker).
+
+2. Call via the Bash tool:
+   ```
+   curl -s -X POST "https://tools.eliteaiempire.com/v1/roundtrip-cost" \
+     -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
+     -d '{"universe":"<VENUE>","bet_usd":<BET>,"price":<PRICE>,"is_maker":<true|false>}'
+   ```
+   If the API returns a supported-universe error, show the user the list from the error message.
+
+3. Report entry cost, exit cost, round-trip cost in USD and bps, and the practical meaning:
+   the round-trip bps is the minimum edge a strategy needs per trade just to break even on fees.
+   Compare maker vs taker if the user asks.
+
+**Compliance:** cost analytics only — not investment advice or an inducement to trade.
--- a/plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets/commands/pm-thesis.md
+++ b/plugins/tradehouse-prediction-markets/commands/pm-thesis.md
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+---
+description: Data-grounded snapshot of a prediction market — pricing, calibration context, fee hurdle (analytics only, not advice)
+argument-hint: <market ticker or question, e.g. INXD-26JUL29>
+---
+
+Build a **market analytics snapshot** for the prediction market: **$ARGUMENTS**
+
+Follow these steps, using `curl` via the Bash tool (all endpoints are free tier, no key needed):
+
+1. **Live cross-venue data.** If the user gave a ticker, fetch:
+   ```
+   curl -s "https://th-api.eliteaiempire.com/api/v1/prediction-market-data/<TICKER>"
+   curl -s "https://th-api.eliteaiempire.com/api/v1/resolutions/<TICKER>"
+   ```
+   If they gave a plain-English question instead of a ticker, say that you need a venue ticker
+   (Kalshi/Polymarket format) and show them what the endpoint returns for an example ticker.
+
+2. **Calibration context.** Fetch the venue calibration report for a venue relevant to the market
+   (supported free venues: `polymarket`, `polymarket_us`, `opinion`):
+   ```
+   curl -s "https://tools.eliteaiempire.com/v1/market-efficiency?venue=polymarket"
+   ```
+   Use the reliability curve to note whether prices in this market's probability bucket
+   historically over- or under-state realized frequency (the favorite-longshot bias shows up here).
+
+3. **Fee hurdle.** Compute the round-trip cost at the market's current price:
+   ```
+   curl -s -X POST "https://tools.eliteaiempire.com/v1/roundtrip-cost" \
+     -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
+     -d '{"universe":"kalshi","bet_usd":100,"price":<CURRENT_PRICE>}'
+   ```
+   (`universe` = the venue the market trades on.)
+
+4. **Synthesize** a short report:
+   - Current pricing per venue + implied probability (state data timestamp/freshness).
+   - Calibration adjustment: what the venue's reliability curve says about prices in this bucket.
+   - The round-trip fee hurdle in bps — the minimum mispricing needed to break even.
+   - A one-line **analytics verdict** about the market's pricing quality — never a trade recommendation.
+
+**Compliance rules (mandatory):**
+- Reproduce the `_meta.disclaimer` text returned by the API at the end of your report.
+- This is a financial data publication / market analytics. NEVER phrase output as personalized
+  investment advice, a recommendation, or a signal to buy/sell. Do not speculate about
+  TradeHouse's internal personas or signals — the public API surface is the only source.
+- If an endpoint returns empty venues/data for the ticker, say so plainly; do not fabricate prices.
+- On HTTP 402/429: the free tier is rate-limited — mention
+  https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com/pricing for Pro/Desk tiers and stop.