# TradeHouse Prediction-Markets — Claude Code plugin marketplace

Prediction-market analytics inside Claude Code, backed by **TradeHouse** public APIs:
settlement-truth market data, venue calibration curves computed over 150k+ resolved markets,
a live-measured fee schedule, and the **phantom battery** (deflated Sharpe / PBO) that we use to
kill overfit backtests before they cost money.

## Install

```bash
claude plugin marketplace add https://git.eliteaiempire.com/eas-oss/tradehouse-prediction-markets.git
claude plugin install tradehouse-prediction-markets@tradehouse
```

## Commands

| Command | What it does |
|---|---|
| `/pm-thesis <ticker>` | Cross-venue pricing snapshot + calibration context + fee hurdle for one market |
| `/pm-calibration [venue]` | Reliability curve, Brier score, favorite-longshot read for a venue (free: polymarket, polymarket_us, opinion) |
| `/pm-fees <venue> <price>` | Round-trip platform cost in USD and bps — the break-even edge hurdle |
| `/overfit-check <returns> [trials=N]` | Deflated-Sharpe + PBO verdict on your backtest — the metric leaderboards don't show |

## Free tier & upgrades

All commands use free public endpoints (no API key). Free tier is rate-limited; HTTP 402/429
responses point at the paid tiers. Pro/Desk tiers (full per-category calibration, the live Desk,
Risk Cockpit, datasets): https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com/pricing

## What this plugin will NOT do

- No investment advice, no trade recommendations, no signals. Outputs are market analytics and
  statistical validation verdicts, with the API's compliance disclaimer reproduced verbatim.
- No access to TradeHouse's internal trading personas or signal internals — the public,
  compliance-hardened API surface is the only data source.

Simulated/backtested performance is not indicative of future results.

## Related

- TradeHouse Overfit Validator (web): https://th-validator.eliteaiempire.com/validator
- Agent-data MCP quickstart: https://git.eliteaiempire.com/eas-oss/tradehouse-mcp-quickstart

MIT licensed.